SHOCKER!
Disney Buying Marvel For $4B!
6TH UPDATE: Did Disney overpay for Marvel? Well, here's the argument for a resounding "Yes!" In both November 2008 and March 2009, Marvel's stock traded below $24 per share. And the run-up of the stock since March of this year has been +58%. If Disney was interested in buying Marvel, why didn't Bob Iger do it when he could have bought it at a far cheaper price? Meanwhile, in today's trading, Marvel stock is up more than 25% (+$9.75) at midday, while Disney shares are trading down almost 3% (-$.75).
5TH UPDATE: Paramount still has a 5-film distribution deal with Marvel, and Bob Iger has confirmed in his press remarks that Marvel's upcoming films will be released by Paramount.
4TH UPDATE: I'm told that Sony's deal on Spider-Man motion picture right is unaffected by today's announcement and not subject to renewal. In fact, Sony is currently developing the next three films in the franchise.
3RD UPDATE: No official word from Paramount yet about how this affects the lucrative distribution agreement with Marvel, or Sony and its Spider-Man franchise. But Universal just issued this statement to me about the future of their theme park licensing pact with Marvel: "Marvel Super Hero Island at Universal’s Islands of Adventure and the Marvel characters are a beloved and important part of the Universal Orlando experience. They will remain so. Our guests are going to get to meet Spider-Man and all our other Marvel characters. We believe our agreement with Marvel stands and that the Disney/Marvel deal will have no impact on our guest experience." Hmm, interesting how there's a "we believe" in there. Sounds unsure.
But it's important to note that the Disney/Marvel deal statement today does not mention Marvel in connection with Disney theme parks. In fact, Disney may not be able to use the 5,000 Marvel characters to freshen its theme parks for some time. Because Universal theme parks have a long-term licensing deal with Marvel that gives them the rights to the characters, and Universal not only has Marvel attractions (like the Spider-Man ride) in Orlando and Osaka but has also built them into future theme park plans. "We have a license deal that goes on for a long time," a Universal insider tells me. Or do they?
2ND UPDATE: Wow, was this kept secret. I knew something was up all weekend when a tipster told me that Disney had arranged an unscheduled investors call this AM and the art department at Disney Online went into a "lock-down" to create a logo. But the best guess by some of the experts I contacted was Disney buying Electronic Arts. Marvel seemed outside the realm of possibility. Yet I've learned that this was a deal which Bob Iger told intimates he'd been pursuing for a long time!
With the whole deal worth $4 billion in cash and stock, a little math shows that Marvel CEO Ike Perlmutter, who owns 37% of his public company, stands to reap $1.5 billion in cash and stock. With so much to lose, and the SEC casting a watchful eye, Perlmutter had every reason to keep this negotiation secret from everyone, even intimates who described themselves to me as "completely blindsided". But they tell me that this sell-out has been the strategy all along of this no-nonsense Israeli. "Ike is the real story here. He's really operated like the Great Oz behind the scenes, not accessible to the public but always mindful of shareholders. This was always an acquisition play for Ike," one insider explains to me. "The bottom line is he turned the whole thing around after he fought tooth and nail with Ron Perelman for the company. Today he runs a nifty company that's tidy on expenses and has no cash flow issues. This deal with Disney just ups his game and creates shareholder value and lets him walk away a billionaire."
With this morning's announcement, Bob Iger today finally steps out of Michael Eisner's shadow and earns his keeps as Corporate America's 3rd highest paid CEO. Because everyone knows that Eisner, when he ran Disney, had to be pushed kicking and screaming to make acquisitions like ABC. (Believing that Disney did best when it grew its businesses organically.) But Iger, first with Pixar, and now Marvel, is showing himself to be the boldest Big Media CEO with an acquisition that "highlights Disney's strategic focus on quality branded content, technological innovation and international expansion to build long-term shareholder value". Now the question is whether the other moguls can keep up with him, especially Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes who's sitting on a pile of cash after the spinoff of Time Warner Cable and needs to start making acquisitions and adding value to the company instead of just buying back the company stock.
That Marvel would be a prize worth having is a foregone conclusion: the entertainment company's aggressive exploitation of its comic book heros in movies and toys and licensing is so far unparallelled. In fact, some believe Marvel Studios is moving too fast and about to flood the comic book film market with product. Yet the public has shown an endless appetite for superhero fare. Nevertheless, marketing all those movies, when P&A costs for tenpoles average $60+M these days, was going to prove costly for Marvel. Now it can rely on the Disney distribution and marketing machine, especially around the world where Marvel was weakest.
On the other hand, there's a real possibility that the fanboys may not want their comic book fare "Disney-fied" by the Magic Kingdom. It undermines the cool quotient. But that hasn't hurt Pixar and it probably won't hurt Marvel, either, as long as Iger and his team are smart enough to keep their hands off Marvel and just count the money about to come in. But can they? Considering how dark some of those Marvel comics have become -- the sex, the gore? Yet that's the stuff that addicts those fanboys crucial to Disney's strategy here because the company is weakest attracting teenaged boys. And the merchandising possibilities are endless given that Disney does something like $1 billion a year sales with Wal-Mart alone. Meanwhile, the deal puts Marvel on much the same footing as the DC Comics/Warner Bros relationship. But to date Disney has been much better at building synergy with its brands, and Iger emphasized that ad nauseum in his investors call this morning.