How will Donald Trump's guilty verdict hit his reelection bid? Is his political fallout here?
NEW YORK –
Former President Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign is entering an unprecedented phase in American political history as he becomes the first major party nominee to be convicted of a crime. Trump must now convince Americans he deserves a second term in the White House after a New York jury found him guilty of all 34 felony counts that were tied to falsifying business records as part of a plan to influence the 2016 presidential election. However, the Republican is expected to take a familiar approach: Attacking the legal system.
"This was a rigged decision, right from day one," Trump told reporters at the courthouse on Thursday less than an hour after being found guilty and echoing past comments the Republican has made designed to
brace voters for the possibility of a guilty verdict. Expect that effort to continue now that a jury has found the former president guilty, while supporters of
President Joe Biden will likely argue that the unprecedented verdict proves Trump is unfit for another four-year term.
So what comes after Trump's historic conviction? Sentencing will come on July 11, just four days before the start of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee where Trump is set to accept the Republican presidential nomination. But don't expect that to stop Trump and his campaign from holding rallies and fundraisers, giving the former president more chances to argue that the judge and prosecutors played politics in pursuing
the hush money case against him.
The presumptive Republican nominee will also be preparing for a couple of important events. There's a
June 27 debate with Biden hosted by CNN in Atlanta, as well as the decision on
selecting a running mate. The former president has said he will
probably announce his pick at the Republican convention, scheduled for July 15-18 in Milwaukee. In the meantime, pollsters associated with Trump and Biden will pore over data to assess how voters react to the first-ever conviction of a former president and current presidential candidate. One thing Trump likely won't have to worry about anytime soon: Prison. He plans to appeal the verdict, and that process could drag out for years.
The coming campaign will be directed at a relatively small number of voters: Independents who are on the fence between Trump and Biden. Campaign officials and independent pollsters have said for months that the verdict will have no impact on Trump partisans; nor will it affect solid Biden voters. Everybody else? No one really knows how they will react to a convicted felon running for president. After all, it's never happened. But even a small percentage turning away from Trump could make a difference in
tightly contested battleground states like Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. At the same time, Trump has suggested that even a guilty verdict could help him because "the people of the country see this as a rigged deal." It's a pitch that still has to play out, but the trial itself does not seem to have hurt Trump much. The former president is
leading Biden slightly in many polls nationwide and in battleground states, although most of those leads are within margins of error.
During the six-week trial, Trump was able to campaign and do fundraisers on Wednesday, the court's off-day, and on weekends. Now look for him to work on the campaign just about every day of the week. Trump will also have to contend with a more aggressive Biden campaign, which is relishing the idea of running against the former president following a conviction. During the trial, Biden officials said they don't plan to focus exclusively on the guilty verdict, but the full panoply of allegations against Trump.
The former president has been indicted in three other criminal cases, including two accusing him of trying to steal the 2020 race for the White House. In civil court actions, Trump has been found liable for
bank fraud and
sexual abuse. Michael Taylor, the Biden team's communications director, told reporters they want to talk about "the unique threat that Donald Trump poses to our democracy."
One thing is clear: Trump and Biden's post-conviction playbooks will be put to the test this summer as the candidates both seek a second term. But another unknown is whether Trump will face another trial before Election Day on Nov. 5. The former president is facing federal criminal charges in Washington accusing him of trying to steal the 2020 election from Biden. But that trial was
delayed when the Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump's claim that he should be immune from prosecution for presidential actions.
The court is expected to rule around the start of July, and a decision against Trump could mean a trial before Election Day – perhaps in the middle of the fall campaign season.
favorable Trump ruling would almost certainly push the trial past Election Day.
There are also no trial dates scheduled for Trump in the
South Florida federal case over allegations the former president mishandled classified information and obstructed justice and the
one in Georgia over his attempts targeting the 2020 election results in the Peach State.