The Ongoing Conflict with Iran

TJHairball

TJHairball

I love this place
The backdrop:

1979: The US-backed Shah is deposed in an internal revolution. A "national emergency" is declared by President Carter; this has been renewed by every president since.
1980: Reagan capitalizes on Carter's inability to deal with the ongoing "Iranian hostage crisis" and wins in a landslide.
1980-1988: Iraq, with overt support from the US, goes to war with Iraq. The Reagan administration covertly sells Iran weapons as well.
1991: Iran stands out to condemn US action against Iraq, in spite of the recent bloody war. Iran accepts Iraqi refugees.

The Petrodollar:

1995: President Clinton declares a new national emergency in relation to Iran, immediately after Iran imposed restrictions on the development of its petroleum resources. This has been renewed since and remains in effect. Clinton said of this emergency:"following the imposition of restrictions with regard to the development of Iranian petroleum resources, Iran continued to engage in activities that represent a threat to the peace and security of all nations, including Iran's continuing support for international terrorism, its support for acts that undermine the Middle East peace process, and its intensified efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction."
1998-2000: Iran puts together its 2000-2005 development plan, including an "Iranian oil bourse" to trade oil not in dollars.
2001: Terror attacks on the US begin a US military occupation of Afghanistan.
January 2002: Bush Jr names Iran in an "axis of evil."
November 2002: Iraq starts selling its oil under the oil for food program in euros.
Spring 2003: US invades Iraq. Oil accounts are re-denominated in dollars.
March 21 2006: US ally Qatar, newly home to a massive US military base, opens a dollar-based oil bourse to compete with the proposed and ever-nearing Iranian oil bourse.
April 30 2006: Iran announces that the Iranian Oil Bourse will open in a week or so.

Israel and nuclear power:

1957: France starts building Israel a research reactor, starting off Israel's nuclear research program.
1964: Reactor goes online.
1967: The US builds the Shah a 5 MW research reactor.
1968: CIA reports that Israel probably has developed a nuclear weapon.
1972: Pakistan begins research on nuclear power.
1998: Pakistan successfully tests the bomb.
2003: Iran's nuclear energy program goes public.
Now: Israel states that Iran's nuclear program is a threat to its existence. The US says it will defend Israel's interests... and so does Israel, which has stated several times that it will not attack Iran.

Iran has its own native supply of uranium. Roughly 65-260 tons of yellowcake can come out of its central uranium mine (mixed in 130,000 tons of ore), and a new uranium resource estimated to produce 30 tons of yellowcake per year was recently discovered. Iran thus does not need to import anything to continue to develop its nuclear program; sanctions therefore will halt nothing. The US has major deployments to the east and west of Iran.
 
You know, I have this sneaking suspicion that Iran wouldn't be rattling their saber if most of the world didn't figuratively have guns to its head telling it it can't have the same technology most of its neighbors (including Israel) already possess.
 
Well, it's a win-win situation with me:

1. Iran develops nuclear tech in order to power its nation. Cool.

2. Iran develops nukes and turns Israel into a dirty rumor among map makers. Also cool.

The monkey wrench is the monkey in the White House. Given that China/Russia will probably nix any UNSC decision to take military action against Iran, and given that the US simply doesn't have enough boots on the ground to hold Iraq and Afghanistan and fly solo in Iran...that leaves poor little Israel by themselves to deal with Iranian nukes. However, I firmly believe Bush is bullheaded enough to try something...and that just might lead to him getting an early retirement.

Also cool.
 
Well, now that you put it that way, there ya go. I would feel bad about it, though. Ahmadinejad is maybe not the bestest political leader ever, but he does have a nice tendency to call Israel on their bullshit when no other political leader in the world has the balls to.
 
Found this on Yahoo News...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060502/ts_nm/nuclear_iran_dc_5
Iran threatens Israel if US acts "evil"
By Edmund Blair1 hour, 2 minutes ago

Iran threatened on Tuesday to attack Israel in response to any "evil" act by the United States and said it had enriched uranium to a level close to the maximum compatible with civilian use in power stations.

The defiant statements were issued shortly before world powers met in Paris late on Tuesday to plan their next moves after Tehran rejected a U.N. call to halt uranium enrichment.

Senior officials from the U.N. Security Council's permanent members -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States -- plus Germany were discussing how to curb an Iranian programme that Western nations say conceals a drive for atomic warheads.

Iran denies the charge and refuses to back down from what it calls its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.

Driving home that message, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Gholamreza Aghazadeh, said his country had now succeeded in purifying uranium to 4.8 percent, at the top end of the 3 to 5 percent range for fuel used in nuclear power plants.

"Enrichment above 5 percent is not on Iran's agenda," Aghazadeh told the students' ISNA news agency.

Iran has previously said it had enriched to more than 4 percent, far below the 80 percent level needed for bomb-making.

It has used a test cascade of 164 centrifuges to enrich uranium so far and is building two similar cascades. It says it will start installing 3,000 centrifuges later this year -- which could yield enough material for one bomb within a year.

The United States and Israel have vowed to deny Iran nuclear weapons. Washington has not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails and Tehran has sworn to retaliate if attacked.

TARGETING ISRAEL

"We have announced that wherever America does something evil, the first place that we target will be Israel," ISNA quoted a senior Revolutionary Guards commander, Rear Admiral Mohammad-Ebrahim Dehqani, as saying on Tuesday.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has called for the Jewish state to be "wiped off the map."

Iran's deputy oil minister said there was "some possibility" of a U.S. attack on his country over its nuclear programme.

"I am worried. Everybody is worried," Mohammad Hadi Nejad-Hosseinian said in New Delhi after talks on a proposed $7-billion pipeline from Iran to India via Pakistan.

Concerns that Iran's dispute with the West could lead to disruption of its oil output pushed oil prices above $74 a barrel, close to the record of $75.35 touched last month.

The United States, Britain and France are expected to introduce a resolution to the Security Council this week that would legally oblige Iran to comply with U.N. demands. The three countries favor limited sanctions if Tehran remains defiant.

Iran said Russia and China, also veto-wielding permanent council members, would not back any punitive measures.

"The thing these two countries have officially told us and expressed in diplomatic negotiations is their opposition to sanctions and military attacks," Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told Iran's Kayhan newspaper.

China and Russia both have big energy interests in Iran, the world's fourth biggest oil exporter. Russia is also helping Iran build its first atomic power plant in the Gulf port of Bushehr.

"STIFF MESSAGE"

In New York, China's U.N. ambassador, Wang Guangya, said he had seen an outline of a proposed Security Council resolution on Iran being drafted by Britain.

"There are some elements that might cause difficulties," he told reporters, declining to elaborate.

Other U.N. diplomats said, however, that no draft was yet being circulated among council members ahead of the Paris talks.

Nicholas Burns, the U.S. under-secretary of state for political affairs, said in Paris that Tuesday's meeting would seek to keep the Security Council members and Germany united before a meeting of foreign ministers in New York on May 9.

Asked about Mottaki's comments, he said: "All I know is that China and Russia say that they don't want a nuclear-armed Iran. And China and Russia have voted with us against the government of Iran. So we intend to preserve this unity."

Burns said he expected a consensus to emerge over the next 30-40 days on the need to send a "stiff message" to Iran, adding that a range of sanctions had been discussed privately.

These included restricting exports to Iran of dual-use technology that could support its research and development or help it fabricate fissile material or a nuclear device.

Other options were travel curbs on Iranian officials and a ban on arms sales to Iran, such as a planned Russian missile deal. Oil and gas sanctions were not being discussed now.

"We hope that the U.N. Security Council, through a resolution, will send a firm and united message to Iran," French Foreign Ministry spokesman Jean-Baptiste Mattei said in Paris.

The U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), says it cannot confirm that Iran's goals are peaceful, but has found no proof of a military programme.

(Additional reporting by Alireza Ronaghi and Parinoosh Arami in Tehran, Mark Heinrich in Vienna, Jon Boyle and Anna Willard in Paris and Himanghsu Watts in New Delhi, Irwin Arieff at the United Nations)
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This is pretty scary. Imagine if we got the country wrong with WMD?
 
The Question posts some interesting dilemmas in his posts. I sense a firm anti-Israel, or should I say anti-Jewish sentiment in them. The US will do what they have always done. They will act when the rest of the world wrings its collective hands and fails to do anything.

Iran will never be allowed to deveop a working nuclear weapon. The ball is in their court. We have already stated our postiion as has Israel.
 
And how will Iran be "stopped"? Cratering Isreal as a response won't fix it.
 
Roadwarrior said:
The Question posts some interesting dilemmas in his posts. I sense a firm anti-Israel, or should I say anti-Jewish sentiment in them.
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You really shouldn't say. The first reason why you shouldn't is because Israel's government doesn't speak for all of Israel, and the second is that Israel's government doesn't speak for the Diaspora, either, which means that criticizing Israel's government is not anti-Israeli, and it is certainly not anti-Jewish, any more than it's anti-American to criticize the Bush Administration.

The US will do what they have always done. They will act when the rest of the world wrings its collective hands and fails to do anything.
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They will expend American lives and American money fighting other countries' battles for them, in return for nothing.

Iran will never be allowed to deveop a working nuclear weapon.
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And our government and Israel's insist they are despite a lack of solid evidence.

We have already stated our postiion as has Israel.
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Actually, our government has pretty much only stated Israel's position. Our government doesn't really have a position of its own, other than following orders.
 
Why the fuck are you MORONS so stupid? There is nothing to fear from Iran. The moment the Israeli Mossad even gets a whiff of Iranian nukes it will be Osirak all over again. Shit. The Israelis destroyed the Osirak reactor even though it was surrounded by SAM missile sites. The Iranians will have the same but the Israelis do not give a shit. They destroyed the Osirak reactor without a single loss. Fuck the Iranians. I am glad Israel is there. They keep the entire fucking Mideast in check. I had read an article about how the fucking Israelis were fucking stunned at how fucking long it took the Americans to capture Baghdad. The Israelis claimed they would have had Baghdad in two days. Took the fucking USA almost a fucking month. Fuck the Americans and fuck the Iranians. Fuck them all.
 
Osirik was a little different. Iran's already either doing it or has done it, nuclear wise. 4.8 yellowcake is quite the declaration.

The difference is, they're a genuine terrorist state, something we seem to have forgotten in the Iraq myopia. Their call for the destruction of Isreal should perhaps, be taken just a little more seriously.

Because it won't be dummy scuds they'll be lobbing into Tel Aviv.
 
SaintLucifer said:
I had read an article about how the fucking Israelis were fucking stunned at how fucking long it took the Americans to capture Baghdad. The Israelis claimed they would have had Baghdad in two days.
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Yeah, they make great back-seat drivers, don't they. Considering their history with Iraq, in fact, we should have let them be the ones to do the work in Baghdad. As far as I know, that is what allies are supposed to do for each other, isn't it?
 
SaintLucifer said:
Why the fuck are you MORONS so stupid? There is nothing to fear from Iran. The moment the Israeli Mossad even gets a whiff of Iranian nukes it will be Osirak all over again. Shit. The Israelis destroyed the Osirak reactor even though it was surrounded by SAM missile sites. The Iranians will have the same but the Israelis do not give a shit. They destroyed the Osirak reactor without a single loss. Fuck the Iranians. I am glad Israel is there. They keep the entire fucking Mideast in check. I had read an article about how the fucking Israelis were fucking stunned at how fucking long it took the Americans to capture Baghdad. The Israelis claimed they would have had Baghdad in two days. Took the fucking USA almost a fucking month. Fuck the Americans and fuck the Iranians. Fuck them all.
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SaintLucifer, didn't read.
 
Iran, as a sovereign Islamic nation or as a soveriegn entity in itself, has every right to pursue its ambitions.


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^^Apparently, some folks are under the impression that Israel and the U.S. are the sole arbiters of which middle-eastern nations have the right to self-governance and which don't.
 
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