2009 Oscars Prediction Thread-OFFICIAL MF Edition!

[Big Dick McGee]

Ok, folks, time to get your predictions in! I’m only including the major categories, and my winners are indicated by this smiley opcorn: . Here we go:

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk opcorn:
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire opcorn:
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Gus Van Sant, Milk

BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk opcorn:
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader opcorn:

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight opcorn:
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona opcorn:
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
In Bruges, Martin McDonagh
Milk, Dustin Lance Black opcorn:
WALL-E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Pete Docter

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Reader, David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy opcorn:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E opcorn:

 

[Big Dick McGee]

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire opcorn:

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire opcorn:
Trouble the Water

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
''Down to Earth,'' WALL-E opcorn:
''Jai Ho,'' Slumdog Millionaire
''O Saya,'' Slumdog Millionaire

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button opcorn:
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

In my mind, there are only 2 slam-dunk choices: Ledger for Best Supporting Actor, and Wall-E for Best Animated Feature.

 

[SilentBtViolent]

I havent' seen the movie, but there's simply no way Benjamin Button deserves so many nominations.

However, props to the Academy for putting Downey, Jr. up for a supporting role in which:

- it's a comedy
- it was popular-ish / commercial
- he wore blackface the whole time

You haven't seen that combo since they nominated Charlton Heston for his role as Bre'r Jim in Mammy and the Fried-Chicken-Eating cupcakeer Dancers in 1931

 

[CaptainWacky]

Heath Leger wins them all then runs out on stage and says "THE JOKE'S ON YOU I'M STILL ALIVE."

 

[Eggs Mayonnaise]

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Gus Van Sant, Milk

BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader (but it should be Leo or Anne)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (but I wish it were a tie with Hoffman)
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona (Nate Silver is wrong, wrong, wrong about Taraji Henson)
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
In Bruges, Martin McDonagh
Milk, Dustin Lance Black
WALL-E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Pete Docter

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Reader, David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E (duh)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Fuck this lameass category, Springsteen was robbed.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight (Consolation Prize award along with Ledger)
Iron Man

I don't care or have an opinion on the rest.

 

[Big Dick McGee]

^^For quite awhile I was with you on the Slumdog Millionaire train. Mind you, I haven't seen any of the Best Picture nominees (first time in a long time that's happened), but I get the sense that there's a slumdog backlash. The fact that it's an international production, with non-American actors rankles some of the Hollywood elite. I get the sense that they believe that a Golden Globes win was appropriate, inasmuch as they're awards given by the Hollywood foreign press; however the Academy voters would like to reward an American production. Milk also is being seen as an "Obama" movie; just like the overwhelming majority of African-American and left-leaning voters went for Obama, so too the majority of gays and those who support gay rights will vote for Milk.

Also, the Academy LOVES an actor portraying a real person, so I think Sean Penn is a shoo-in.

Of course, given the inherent unpredictability of Hollywood, I could be totally 100% wrong!

 

[CaptainWacky]

America Pie Presents Band Camp will somehow win everything.

 

[Eggs Mayonnaise]

^^For quite awhile I was with you on the Slumdog Millionaire train. Mind you, I haven't seen any of the Best Picture nominees (first time in a long time that's happened), but I get the sense that there's a slumdog backlash. The fact that it's an international production, with non-American actors rankles some of the Hollywood elite. I get the sense that they believe that a Golden Globes win was appropriate, inasmuch as they're awards given by the Hollywood foreign press; however the Academy voters would like to reward an American production. Milk also is being seen as an "Obama" movie; just like the overwhelming majority of African-American and left-leaning voters went for Obama, so too the majority of gays and those who support gay rights will vote for Milk.

Also, the Academy LOVES an actor portraying a real person, so I think Sean Penn is a shoo-in.

Of course, given the inherent unpredictability of Hollywood, I could be totally 100% wrong!

There was, in fact, a Slumdog backlash for about 2 days after it started winning every other award in town. But then everyone found out that the bad word-of-mouth about child labor in the movie was started by Harvey Weinstein, who was merely up to his old dirty tricks. Harvey is currently such a pariah that it's probably created a counter-backlash against The Reader, and swung people back toward Slumdog, which is the safe bet.

As for Milk, never underestimate the homophobia of the blue-haired faction of the academy voters. Brokeback Mountain was the most award-sweeping film in history leading up to the Oscars. Yet, while the directors in town gave it the Best Director Oscar, and the writers in town gave it Best Screenplay, the general voting body didn't give it any acting awards, nor did it vote it Best Picture.

Crash was a preachy, stiff film about race relations in LA that was packed with Hollywood stars working for scale. It was a comfort-food alternative to Brokeback for scaredy-cat pseudo-liberal voters who never got used to the idea of The Gheys running Hollywood.

I used to think that Penn was a lock, but these days I'm not so sure, since he has been splitting all the other awards in town with Rourke. Voters love a comeback kid, plus Penn already has an Oscar, one that some feel he "stole" from Bill Murray that year with a weepy "you killed my baby" role. It ain't over til it's over.

 

[Big Dick McGee]

Yeah, I read about Harvey's tactics. Now that he's basically broke, he can't smear his way to an Oscar like he did with Shakespear in Love. As one critic noted, based on Oscars awarded, Saving Private Ryan was the best-written, best-directed, had the best cinematography...and Shakespeare in Love was the Best Picture???

All valid points by you, Mr. Mayo.

 

[Eggs Mayonnaise]

In addition to Gawker & Defamer, I read Nikki Finke's DHD blog. Also In Contention.

 

[CaptainWacky]

AS LONG AS MICKEY ROURKE WINS THEN CUTS A PROMO ON CHRIS JERICHO I'LL BE HAPPY.

 

[headvoid]

Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn to decide all in a gay wrestling scene.

 

[Eggs Mayonnaise]

Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn to decide all in a gay wrestling scene.

Isn't that how Sean won Madonna the first time?

 

[Tisiphone]

BEST PICTURE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire opcorn:

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire opcorn:
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
Gus Van Sant, Milk

BEST ACTOR
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler opcorn:

BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader opcorn: (Like Eggs, though...wish it would go to Anne or Melissa. They'll give it to Winslet for all her other roles.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight opcorn:
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler opcorn:

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Frozen River, Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky, Mike Leigh
In Bruges, Martin McDonagh
Milk, Dustin Lance Black opcorn:
WALL-E, Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Pete Docter

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Eric Roth
Doubt, John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon, Peter Morgan
The Reader, David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire, Simon Beaufoy opcorn:

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E opcorn:

 

[headvoid]

Has it happened yet?

I want to see the gay wrestling

 

[Big Dick McGee]

All of my predictions were right! Except the ones that weren't!!

 

[DarthSikle]

Mickey Rourke was robbed.

 

[CaptainWacky]

The Academy got wind he was appearing at WrestleMania and blacklisted him?!

 

[Eggs Mayonnaise]

I was 8-for-10. Damn Sean Penn, and damn Benjamin Button's effects.

 

[Big Dick McGee]

I was an astounding 11-for-13! I correctly picked Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Animated Feature, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay, Documentary, Visual FX and Cinematography.

Damn, I should've entered a contest!