College football championship -- LSU-Clemson analysis, prediction and more
Only in college football could a national title game pitting two teams that have each won two titles in this century feel fresh and exciting, but here we are. After three Alabama-Clemson title games in the past four years, with an Alabama-Clemson semifinal in 2017, we now get a battle of Tigers. Dabo Swinney's Clemson is here once more, but this time Ed Orgeron's Bama- (and Georgia- and Oklahoma-) conquering LSU Tigers, champs in 2003 and 2007, await.
In a season that featured three true title-caliber standouts (these two teams and Ohio State), it's fitting that the College Football Playoff National Championship in New Orleans will pit two of them. LSU and Clemson are a combined 28-0, and they each field thrilling, modern offenses and elite pass defenses. On paper, this is a classic matchup. Let's dive into what separates them and what doesn't. LSU may be a 5.5- to 6-point favorite, but the numbers suggest something far closer to a toss-up.
The Tigers have been good all season. Obviously. We were already gushing about their resurgent offense two weeks into the season, and despite a growing number of defensive injuries, they survived a stiflingly hot 45-38 shootout at Texas in Week 2 and beat four other, weaker, teams by an average of 57-15. And as the schedule got stiffer, so did their resolve. They survived tough home tests against Florida and Auburn, then went to Tuscaloosa and beat Alabama for the first time in eight years. What's scary, however, is that as the defense has grown healthier, LSU has just gotten stronger and stronger.
An initial glance at the stats from Clemson's win over Ohio State might be confusing. Passes to star receivers Justin Ross and Tee Higgins were just 10-for-19 for 80 yards (4.2 per target) and a 32% success rate. Not good. Star running back Travis Etienee carried 10 times for just 36 yards. Also not good. The Tigers went scoreless on their first four drives (one missed field goal, three punts) because Ohio State had deftly accounted for what amounted to Clemson's Plan A. Worse, Higgins got hurt early on, and it looked for a while as if he wouldn't return.
Perhaps no team on the planet has shown the level of adaptability that Clemson has in key moments, however, and once the Tigers got a break -- in the form of Shaun Wade's controversial targeting call and ejection on Clemson's fifth drive -- they quickly found a rhythm. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence picked up more of the running load, and the Tigers found opportunities for Etienne on the edge of the defense not by handing him the ball but by throwing it to him.