Christopher Plummer and Octavia Spencer are absolute locks to win the Supporting trophies. Bet the farm.
Same goes for The Artist for Best Picture. Call the bookie, put up the kids' college funds.
Good bets but not 100%: Jean Dejardinfrenchyboy for Best Actor, A Separation for Best Foreign Film, and Harry Potter getting completely snubbed yet again for any technical awards, because people suck.
Everything else is up in the air. There's anti-Payne backlash hurting The Descendents' chances of winning anything. People think Meryl Streep is going to be handed Best Actress as a substitute Lifetime Achievement award, but the fact is, while she was her usual excellent self, the movie she was in sucked. Viola Davis has grassroots support, plus the bleeding heart voters love to look good giving "racial struggle" movies awards. (ex: the mediocre and preachy "Crash" beating "Brokeback Mountain" for best Pic in '96). There's talk about finally giving Glenn Close the Oscar she earned about 20 movies ago, but not enough talk thanks to Meryl and Octavia, so SORRY GLENN, shine up your Golden Globes and Emmys when you get home.