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2008 Elections: State Breakdown

Gonad

Gonad

DON'T FUCK WITH MY TITLE BITCH
Pre-Townhall Debate Analysis (part 1 of 5)

Alabama (9 delegates): Solid McCain
No recent polls, but in all previous ones McCain had a strong lead, not to mention AL voting red in the last five elections, gov. and both senators are red, and the majority of house reps are red. Oddly enough, their state capitol is made up of over 50% blue.

Alaska (3): Solid McCain
McCain's VP's home state. Enough said.

Arizona (10): Solid McCain
McCain is a senator for AZ. Enough said.

Arkansas (6): Leaning Obama
Nobody has bothered to poll this backwater state recently, but old polls gave McCain a solid lead. AK has been voting red for presidents, except of course in the case of Bill Clinton. Most news organizations give this one to McCain. I'm not so sure. They certainly have the capacity to vote blue for president, as Clinton elections show, and their governor, and senators are all blue, and only one of their four house reps is red. The majority of their state congress is also made up of blues, which is why I think it is possible for Obama to get this state.

California (55holyshit): Solid Obama
Obama has maintained a decent (but not spectacular) lead in this state. That along with CA's historically blue presidential voting record, and the blues holding the majority of it's fed and state congresses (congrii?) make for a solid Obama lead.

Colorado (9): Leaning McCain
A lot of news sources call this a toss-up state, but Obama does not have a very strong lead in the polls (leads by less then ten percent and often less than five percent) CO seems to go back and forth historically, and they currently have mostly blues in office, but with the race factor and Obama's weak lead and CO's geographical position in the US I am inclined to believe this state is more likely McCain's.

Connecticut (9): Solid Obama
Strong Obama lead coupled with historically blue voting pattern.

Delaware (3hahayoudon'tmatterasmuchasyourmorepopulousneighbors): Solid Obama
See Connecticut; although it is interesting that DE's only Fed House Rep is red.

Florida (27): Leaning McCain
Obama's lead is not very strong, couple that with the race factor, and *especially* FL's tendency to lean red (4/5 last pres. elections, governor, one senator, majority of house reps and majority of state congress.) Not really a battleground state this time around.

Georgia (15): Solid McCain
McCain's lead is ever-so-slightly diminishing, but he still has a definite lead, and this state has a red voting record.
 
(part 2 0f 5)

Hawaii (4-morethanDEhaha): Solid Obama
Obama's birthplace. Enough said.

Idaho (4): Solid McCain
Unusually red voting history, and McCain has a spectacular lead here.

Illinois (21): Solid Obama
Obama is a senator for IL. Enough said.

Indiana (11): Leaning McCain
McCain has a very small lead here, but I can't ignore the state's red voting history. Red enough so as not to be a toss-up.

Iowa (7): Solid Obama
The state is pretty blue, and Obama has a decent lead. Although why the cornfields of Iowa vote blue instead of red is confusing for me.

Kansas (6): Solid McCain
Pretty red state, and McCain has solid/strong lead in polls.

Kentucky (8): Solid McCain
McCain has a great lead here, and the state generally votes red.

Louisiana (9): Leaning McCain
McCain's lead is pretty high, I'm about to change my opinion from leaning to solid once I get a poll from October in there. Overall LA seems to split between voting red and voting blue pretty evenly.

Maine (4): Solid Obama
Maine is a blue state. Perhaps time will change that, but not yet. Obama has a lead in the polls and there is a blue history.

Maryland (10): Solid Obama
Obama has a solid/strong lead in this historically-blue state, probably has something to do with MD and DC kind of being the same thing (screw the south-side of the Potomac)
 
(part 3 of 5)

Massachusetts (12): Solid Obama
Obama has a strong lead here, but oddly enough not as strong as I was expecting. This state historically does not prefer voting red.

Michigan (17): Leaning Obama
I'm about to change this from leaning to solid, but the lead just isn't all that huge, and while they historically vote blue for presidents, I think the reds are gaining ground. The state congress has a slight red majority.

Minnesota (10): Solid Obama
Obama has a strong lead, and despite the red governor and senator, this state is made up of mostly blue congressmen and has a blue presidential voting record.

Mississippi (6): Solid McCain
McCain has strong footing in the polls, and while blues are gaining ground in the MS congress, the state has a history of voting red.

Missouri (11): Leaning McCain
Obama's lead in the polls is almost negligible, and while this state seems to waffle colors, right now there are more reds than blues in office, and I just have this feeling . . .

Montana (3): Leaning McCain
I've always thought of this as a solidly red state, and McCain has a lead, but they currently have a blue governor and both senators are blue, and the state congress is split just about 50/50.

Nebraska (5): Solid McCain
McCain has a definite lead, and this state is historically red.

Nevada (5): Toss-Up
I have no idea! Obama appears to have a slight lead, but this state seems to vote red and blue like they're making confetti.

New Hampshire (4): Leaning Obama
WTF?!? I'm about to change this one to solid Obama as well, given the latest polls. Hm, I guess I'll wait until after the debates. He has a definite lead, but the voters themselves like to remain unaffiliated.

New Jersey (15): Solid Obama
Obama has a lead, and the state is historically blue.
 
(part 4 of 5)

New Mexico (5): Leaning Obama
The state is pretty blue, but not overwhelmingly blue. And Obama is leading, but once again his lead is not overwhelming.

New York (31): Solid Obama
He has a strong lead, and it is just a very blue state.

North Carolina (15): Leaning McCain
The polls are very close, but this state is historically red, I would be surprised if that changed.

North Dakota (3): Leaning McCain
Why not solid McCain you ask? My gut tells me this is not a sure thing. But it is likely.

Ohio (20): Toss-Up
I'm not even willing to guess.

Oklahoma (7): Solid McCain
McCain has a *31%* lead and it is a historically red state. I'm surprised they have a blue governor.

Oregon (7): Leaning Obama
The state is historically blue and he has a lead, but I'd like to see some more recent polls.

Pennsylvania (21): Solid Obama
Obama's VP's home state. Enough said.

Rhode Island (4): Solid Obama
Ha ha, even RI has more delegates than DE! LOL. Anyways, Obama has a big lead and it is an historically blue state.

South Carolina (8): Solid McCain
Apartheid in America? Hm. Oh well, that is pretty much unrelated to this post. McCain has a strong lead in a state that has a record of voting red.
 
(part 5 of 5)

South Dakota (3): Solid McCain
I've got no gut feelings about this state, only logic.

Tennessee (11): Solid McCain
McCain is leading the polls here, and he'll win. Some people might think it is odd that the state votes blue as often as it does, but I know what the deal is on that: Nashville is the home of a very large music industry. Now, in the old days Nashville's music industry was made up of GOPs, but over time people from the LA music industry moved east and into the Nashville music industry, so the entertainment industry in Nashville is actually very blue. However, they are not there to be activists, they are there to make money and they know their audience. So there's actually a surprising amount of blues in that red state, catering to and encouraging the red audience.

Texas (34): Solid McCain
I'm getting bored with this but I won't quit now! McCain leads in the polls and TX votes red historically.

Utah (5): Solid McCain
See TX. Although McCain leads by *37%* here! Wow!

Vermont (3): Solid Obama
Same as TX, only replace "McCain" with "Obama" and "red" with "blue"

Virginia (13): Leaning McCain
I never thought I'd see VA possibly be a blue state. They're not blue, regardless of the congressional individuals they've recently put into office. Obama's lead isn't by a lot, and my experience with Virginians is that they are racist, sexist, ignorant assholes. Will they vote for McCain and run the risk of getting a woman president? Or will they vote Obama and hope someone offs him so that they can get their white man president? I have a feeling they'd rather get a "dumb bitch" surrounded by smart white men then get a "nigger lover," so that is why they will probably go to McCain.

Washington (11): Solid Obama
News people say the state is only leaning Obama, and it is true that a great deal of the state is red, but as you get closer and closer to the city of Seattle, it gets very blue. So incredibly blue that it throws off the entire rest of the state. It is almost an east vs west problem. Because of Seattle, Obama takes this one.

West Virginia (5): Leaning Obama
McCain's edge isn't all that strong, and the state has been on a blue trend recently.

Wisconsin (10): Solid Obama
Obama's lead is not huge, but it is a blue state.

Wyoming (3): Solid McCain
McCain has a commanding lead in the polls in this historically red state.

Washington DC (3): Solid Obama
If you think DC will vote anything other than blue you are smoking crack.

Result: Obama with 238 certain, and 37 likely delegates.
McCain with 137 certain, and 101 likely delegates.
The only real toss-up states are Nevada and Ohio. Damned if I'm not willing to bet money on which way they go this time around.
 
I was looking at different polls and trends in those polls for each state. Where I was unable to locate any poll results from after the VP debates, I took that into account. I also looked at the popular vote results for the last five presidential elections for each state, and some other stuff, and my own personal opinions.

In short, my opinions + historical voting and current elected official data from NY Times + polling trends and latest available poll results from RealClearPolitics.com

Perhaps I didn't factor in race quite as much as I should have. Whatever.
 
I checked those sites plus a couple of others as well. What they all boil down to is, if the solid/leaning states stay as they are now, all Obama needs to do is take Ohio or Florida, and it's over. And Ohio is looking promising.
 
I disagree. Well, not exactly. What you say is true. However, I don't think Obama will take Florida but I do think he will win.
 
I think this is the worst set of candidates I've ever had to choose from. These two make John Kerry look absolutely presidential. I'd even vote for Al Gore before these two.
 
In that I actually agree with you.

I think I might actually vote for McCain and Palin. At least if he croaks, I can turn off the volume during the yearly speeches and just watch a MILF wink at me for an hour.
 
Dual's note on Idaho:

Idaho is an exceptionally white state. Seriously. I lived there for a year. As of until recently home to the headquarters of the Aryan Nation and still quite reactionary and bigoted, Idaho is unlikely to ever vote for somebody not of the "master race."
 
Hey, when it gets to the point that they can't afford the crosses to burn or the cost of making copies of their hate pamphlets at the local Kinkos, you'd be surprised who they vote for.
 
There are too many evangelical racists in Florida, for Obama to win here.
 
Dual said:
Dual's note on Idaho:

Idaho is an exceptionally white state. Seriously. I lived there for a year. As of until recently home to the headquarters of the Aryan Nation and still quite reactionary and bigoted, Idaho is unlikely to ever vote for somebody not of the "master race."
Click to expand...

Did you know I am acquainted with a "Spud Princess?" She is very nice, and also very white-complexioned.
 
Cassie said:
There are too many evangelical racists in Florida, for Obama to win here.
Click to expand...
Ohio is a better shot anyway. Also Virginia and Colorado. Basically any tossup state with 10 electoral votes will push him over. ;)

Just wait for more states to copy Florida's "disenfranchisement" of African-American voters by turning them away at the polls. Then watch the election slip away as the riots begin! It's probably "Plan A" in Karl Rove's Seekret PlaybooKKK.
 
A Spud Princess is a sort of beauty queen, and it promotes awareness of the famed Idaho potato.

Virginia and Colorado will most likely go to McCain, but Obama can win without VA, CO, or even FL.
 
As of this morning, I stand by my prior assessments.

But don't count McCain out! He has surprised everyone multiple times, and he may yet win.
 
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