Some thoughts re: the markets / economy:
- Real inflation is running rampant and not transitory.
- Powell and co will have to pony up a timeline for tapering sooner rather than later.
- The bull on the macro has been going hard for over a decade, with the March 2020 wiped away in a matter of months. S&P500 double its value this time last year. If you're in the markets - expect the grind up to continue. But long term indicators are catching up in a quick way to where we're sitting.
I don't like slapping a date on anything, but expect a crash and a gut wrenching, multi-year bear market, by 2023. Worst thing is, the Fed can't raise interest rates by that much, otherwise they'll be unable to service the mountain of debt. They know they're fucked. When this everything bubble crashes, you want to be firmly in cash / bonds. There will be once in a generation bargains once the blood bath subsides.